Variance
Inventory says you should have $4,200 left. The shelf says $3,750. That gap is variance, and it's almost never random.
Updated October 2, 2026
Variance is the gap between what you should have sold based on inventory and what actually rang up. Some of it is normal. A lot of it isn't, and chasing the difference is one of the highest-impact things a manager can do.
Variance
Theoretical usage minus actual usage, in dollars or ounces. Also called shrinkage. Common causes: overpouring, spillage, theft, unrecorded comps, and recipe specs that don't match what's actually being poured.
What's normal
One to two percent variance is the noise floor. Spillage, evaporation on speed pours, generous pours on the last sip of a bottle. Anything above 3% is a signal worth investigating.
What it usually is
- Overpouring. A bartender free-pouring 0.25oz long on every drink loses a full 750ml bottle every shift.
- Untracked comps. Staff drinks, "round on me" gestures, friends who never get rung in.
- Recipe drift. The menu says 1.5oz; the bartender pours 1.75oz because that's how they were trained somewhere else.
- Theft. Less common than overpouring, but real. Look for variance that spikes on specific shifts.
Note